EE.UU., puerto final del oro ilegal peruano

El encarcelamiento de dos peruanos, acusados de lavado de activos, fue el inicio de una extensa y complicada red de comercio de oro ilegal cuyo principal comprador es una empresa metalúrgica de EE.UU.

Las capturas de Pablo Granda y Pedro David Pérez Miranda pusieron en evidencia una red de minería ilegalcuyo principal comprador está a kilómetros, en EE.UU.

El Departamento de Seguridad estadounidense inició una investigación penal por compra de oro ilegal contra Northern Texas Refinery (NTR) explica a RT el periodista peruano Oscar Castilla, quien ha desarrollado una extensa investigación sobre la minería ilegal en su país.

Según los fiscales estadounidenses, trabajadores de NTR, entre los que se encontraba Granda, compraban oro, procedente de la Amazonía peruana, a minas ilegales, reseña 'Gestión' citando a Bloomberg.

El proceso revela además que la oficina de NTR en Miami presuntamente lavó miles de millones de dólares de las mafias que controlaban las minas, donde además hay trata de personas, daños ambientales y esclavización moderna.

"Soy como Pablo (Escobar) yendo a Ecuador para conseguir la coca“.
Pablo Granda, encarcelado por acusación de lavado de activos.

Debido a los movimientos y registro en la aduana estadounidense, el Departamento de Seguridad y el FBI consideran que hay "fuertes indicios" de que NTR inició sus operaciones en Perú en 2012.

La demanda contra esa empresa metalúrgica arroja que el contrabando de oro ilegal en varios países mineros de América Latina fue de 3.600 millones de dólares de 2012 a 2015.

"Por todos los miles de millones de dólares enviados desde América Latina a NTR en Miami, NTR envió miles de millones de dólares en pagos electrónicos a América Latina desde Estados Unidos", escribió Colberd Almeida, del Departamento de Seguridad, en una declaración jurada del 10 de marzo.

NTR ha cambiado de nombre y ha dejado de operar en Perú, agregó Castilla.

Los tentáculos latinoamericanos

Los nombres de Pablo Granda y Pedro David Pérez Miranda saltaron al ámbito noticioso al conocerse las investigaciones que se les habían abierto y sus condenas a la cárcel por su relación con el enriquecimiento ilícito producto de la minería ilegal. Uno de los principales operadores de NTR en Perú era Granda, según Castilla.

Un helicóptero patrulla durante una operación policial para destruir campos ilegales de extracción de oro en La Pampa, en Madre de Dios.Stringer PeruReuters

Granda fue detenido el 10 de marzo en Miami bajo la acusación de lavado de dinero en EE.UU., reseña 'Perú 21'. Este hombre de 35 años, debe demostrar ante la aduana la información falsa que proporcionó, en la que declaraba el oro en su poder como 'no refinado', lo que disminuía el valor en 50%.

Según la investigación, se alió a dos vendedores de NTR y otras personas que sabían del tipo de negocio irregular que llevaba a cabo.

"Crimen organizado, contrabando de oro e ingreso de mercancías en EE.UU. por medios y declaraciones falsas, minería ilegal, y narcotráfico", escribió Almeida citado por Bloomberg.

Las pesquisas policiales arrojan que Granda trabajaba directamente en las selvas de América del Sur, donde operan la minería ilegal y sus mafias.

El 'Pablo Escobar moderno'

Granda se autodenominó como el 'Pablo Escobar moderno', según la información cifrada hallada en los mensajes de un chat de celular que tenía con sus cómplices.

"Soy como Pablo [Escobar] yendo a Ecuador para conseguir la coca", recoge su expediente judicial y cita 'El Comercio'.

Perú: La política, bañada de oro ilegal

Entre las comunicaciones también hallaron comentarios y fotos sobre sus 'mulas' de oro, que correspondían a jóvenes que transportaban el metal precioso en mochilas.

La forma de captación de los potenciales clientes se basaba en relaciones, visitas a NTR para ver las instalaciones y promesas de obtención del oro en menos tiempo que otras refinerías, arrojó la causa penal.

Posteriormente se hacía el comercio ilegal a través de muchas empresas falsas que exportaban el oro en pequeñas cantidades a una corporación más grande.

'Peter Ferrari'

Tras la detención de Granda, se hallaron evidencias que vinculaban a Pedro David Pérez Miranda, alias 'Peter Ferrari' con el contrabando de oro proveniente de Madre de Dios, en la Amazonía peruana.

Pérez Miranda, capturado el pasado 4 de enero por fuerzas policiales en Lima, es investigado por "presuntamente haber exportado de forma ilegal 14 toneladas de oro valorizadas en más de 660 millones de dólares" recoge 'Perú 21'.

En la amplia residencia de 'Peter Ferrari' encontraron ocho autos de lujo y armas de fuego. Además se hizo un allanamiento de 10 propiedades que presuntamente le pertenecían. La captura se realizó por orden de la Fiscalía de Lavado de Activos y Pérdida de Dominio peruana.

Oficiales de la policía peruana participan en una operación para destruir campos ilegales de extracción de oroJanine CostaReuters

Tras la pista

En mayo de 2014 la justicia peruana abrió la investigación contra 'Peter Ferrari' por lavado de activos, pues se detectó que empresas relacionadas con él habían exportado ilegalmente a compañías estadounidenses "más de 14 toneladas de oro por un valor de 660 millones de dólares, según consta en la Carpeta Fiscal Nº01-2014", informa 'Perú 21'.

Estas exportaciones se hicieron entre 2012 y 2013 a través de empresas falsas, a nombre de testaferros.

Luego de meses de pesquisa, la fiscalía estableció que 'Peter Ferrari' era "el presunto financista y cabecilla de una organización criminal dedicada a la exportación de mineral aurífero procedente de la minería ilegal" según 'Perú 21'.

El oro salía ilegalmente de Perú, y se distribuía a través de empresas falsas hasta llegar a EE.UU.Pexels / Pixabay

El registro de la Unidad de Inteligencia Financiera y la Superintendencia Aduanera y Tributaria peruanas arrojó que la empresa Minerales La Mano de Dios, relacionada con Pérez Miranda, a través de testaferros y familiares, realizó "39 operaciones de exportación por 2,1 toneladas de oro por un valor de 107,5 millones de dólares" a NTR.

Además, la empresa Minerals Gold MPP SAC, relacionada también con Pérez Miranda, tuvo 40 operaciones de exportación de oro por 2,9 toneladas por 138 millones de dólares importadas por NTR.

Pérez Mirada ya había sido encarcelado en 1998 por lavado de dinero producto del narcotráfico. Después de cinco años de prisión fue liberado.

"El agua le ganó al oro": El Salvador prohíbe la minería metálica

El Congreso aprueba una ley que prohíbe las actividades de exploración, extracción, explotación y procesamiento, ya sea a cielo abierto o subterráneo

El país más pequeño de Centroamérica, El Salvador,aprobó este miércoles una ley que prohíbe la minería metálica, al considerar que es una industria que crea impactos negativos sobre el medio ambiente y la salud de las personas. "Hoy es un día histórico para El Salvador. Es un día histórico para el mundo entero",aseguró la ministra de Medio Ambiente, Lina Pohl, tras la votación.  

La nueva ley, aprobada con el voto de 69 de los 84 diputados, prohíbe las actividades de exploración, extracción, explotación y procesamiento, ya sea a cielo abierto o subterráneo. Además, pone fin a la utilización de químicos tóxicos, como el cianuro y el mercurio, en cualquier proceso de minería metálica.

Una medida para asegurar los recursos de agua

"Es un día importante para el país porque aprobamos la ley. La ley no es cualquier ley. Esta normativa está bañada con sangre", aseguró el presidente de la Comisión de Medio Ambiente y Cambio Climático, el diputado Guillermo Mata (FMLN), en referencia a todos los ciudadanos que "fueron asesinados por luchar contra la minería metálica, por defender el medio ambiente" y que denunciaron "que la minería era una industria de lucro que no beneficiaba a El Salvador".

Según datos de la ONU, el nivel de contaminación medioambiental en el país es uno de los más elevados de la región y la disponibilidad de agua potable es muy baja. "Hoy hemos visto más allá de los intereses partidarios, y tomamos una decisión unánime para asegurar las fuentes del agua. Es deber del Estado proteger los recursos naturales para garantizar el desarrollo sostenible del medio ambiente", afirmó el diputado John Wright Sol (ARENA), que subrayó: "¡Este día el agua le ganó al oro!"

La normativa se ha aprobado a pesar del interés en el oro y la plata de las mineras multinacionales. De hecho, el pasado mes de octubre, un tribunal de arbitraje del Banco Mundial dio la razón a El Salvador en un litigio contra la minera australiana-canadiense OceanaGold Corporation, que reclamaba al país 250 millones de dólares pornegarle un permiso de extracción en el 2009. Además, el organismo condenó a la minera a pagar ocho millones de dólares por los costos del litio y el pasado martes ordenó también a la compañía pagar los intereses sobre esa deuda.

Perú: La política, bañada de oro ilegal

Actualidad

Publicado: 25 Mar 2017 | 15:30 GMT

Reuters Janine Costa

A pesar del impacto negativo en el ámbito social y ambiental, la minería ilegal comienza a colarse en el escenario político de ese país.

La minería ilegal en Perú comienza a tener influencia en la política, afirma el exviceministro de Gestión Ambiental, José de Echave. El sector de la explotación minera ilegal, que ha causado daños en 17 áreas protegidas del país, "controla territorios, impone sus condiciones y tiene poder político", agrega.

Un gobernador y un congresista, con nexos en la minería ilegal

De Echave explica que tanto el gobernador como un congresista del departamento de Madre de Dios, en el sur del país y dedicado 90 % a la minería ilegal, tienen nexos públicamente conocidos con esa actividad ilícita.

El gobernador del departamento amazónico, Luis Otsuka (2015-2018), admitió tener dos concesiones de minería en la zona en una entrevista hecha por Ojo Público. Además fue presidente por dos años de la Federación de Mineros de Madre de Dios, tiene abierta una investigación por parte de la Fiscalía Especializada en Materia Ambiental y alentó protestas en contra de la legalización de los pequeños mineros en 2012 y 2014 según 'El Comercio'.

Una instalación ilegal de dragado de oro arde en un río cerca de la ciudad amazónica de Puerto Maldonado en PerúJanine CostaReuters

En esa región amazónica, que se han destruido 50.000 hectáreas (500 km) por la acción minera, el tema ambiental no pareciera ser la prioridad de su principal autoridad, quien se opone a la declaración de emergencia de 11 distritos de la región.

No son pobres, son mafias

"Deberíamos estar tan preocupados porque haya autoridades que han sido elegidas y que estén tan vinculadas a esa actividad ilegal", alerta De Echave.

El exviceministro considera que la opinión publica cree que la actividad ilícita, en las que participan unas 600.000 personas, según cifras no oficiales, es realizada por sectores empobrecidos que no tienen otra alternativa.

"No son pobres, son mafias que tienen poder económico, social, político; controlan los territorios e imponen condiciones muy duras", sostiene.

Un congresista del partido de Keiko

Modesto Figueroa Minaya (2016-2021), el único congresista del partido Fuerza Popular, de Keiko Fujimori, electo por Madre de Dios, fue denunciado por la Procuraduría Pública del Ministerio del Ambiente en 2014 ante la Fiscalía de Delitos de Lavado y Activos de ese país por el lavado de activos vinculados a la minería ilegal.

Según un documento legal publicado por el diario 'Correo', Figueroa Minaya tiene nexos con la familia Baca Casas, acusada de ser la principal productora de oro ilegal en Madre de Dios. "Existen fundadas sospechas para sostener que el denunciado brinda un especial servicio de comercialización de hidrocarburos para la minería ilegal, desplegando la conducta prevista en el tipo penal de Financiamiento de la Minería Ilegal", recoge el texto legal.

Un área deforestada por la minería ilegal en la zona Mega 14, ubicada en la región amazónica de Madre de Dios (Perú). Enrique Castro-MendivilReuters

La investigación abierta arroja además que Figueroa Minaya actúa como testaferro y comerciante de hidrocarburos del llamado clan Baca Casas.

También el protagonista del partido de Keiko Fujimori, que se enfrentó con el actual presidente Pedro Pablo Kuczynski en las pasadas elecciones de 2016, podría tener lazos con los mineros ilegales. Keiko "firmó un acuerdo, con fines electorales, con los mineros ilegales para desmantelar todas las leyes que los estaban afectando", expresa José de Echave.

Un marco legal desdibujado

En su opinión, las autoridades ligadas con la minería defienden sus intereses a través de "estrategias para tener poder político, y llegar al Congreso, donde se debaten las leyes".

De Echave considera que hay un retroceso en el aspecto legal, a pesar de que en 2012 se aprobó el Decreto Nº 1100, que incluyó en el Código Penal el delito de minería ilegal, y en 2010 se había declarado de interés nacional el ordenamiento minero en Madre de Dios.

"Ese marco legal, con el poder político que tienen, unido a que son un bolsón electoral importante, ha comenzado a retroceder, flexibilizarse y pienso que la minería ilegal difícilmente pueda ser controlada", concluyó el exviceministro.

In Peru, a smelter's future stirs fears of its toxic past

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's efforts to revive a nearly 100-year-old smelting complex could overcome a crucial hurdle at a coming auction where five companies have shown interest in placing bids.

But celebration is far from universal given the sprawling smelter's toxic legacy and Kuczynski's criticism of environmental rules.

Reviving La Oroya, nestled in a destitute region in Peru's central Andes at nearly 3,800 meters (12,500 feet), would mark an early victory in Kuczynski's plan to ramp up the country's smelting capacity to wring more value from mineral shipments that make up at least half of overall export earnings.

    Such exalted goals are of little comfort to some La Oroya residents like Sonia Ponce, who worries the government will not do enough to prevent a repeat of the smelter's dirty past. Its smokestacks once spewed so much smoke that midday sometimes appeared to be evening, lacing the soil with heavy metals to a depth of two feet (60 cm) in some parts of town.

Hundreds of children in La Oroya have been found to have dangerous levels of lead in their blood, including Ponce's grandchildren, who once had to spend their days in a different town to reduce their exposure and today cannot keep up with schoolwork. "They're constantly fatigued," Ponce, 56, said from her home in a hillside slum in La Oroya, blaming the smelter. "It's very sad to see young people grow up sick. No one can give them their health back."

At the same time, scores of La Oroya residents have been agitating for a full revival of the smelter, which ground to a halt in 2009 but has since restarted some zinc production.

Dismissing pollution concerns as exaggerated, they say the town, which has already lost a quarter of its population, will wither away without it. "It's terrible to live like this," said Marisela Perez asshe waited for customers in her grocery shop. "There's no workand businesses are closing."

Finding a new owner for the smelter while ensuring a cleaner operation will be a key test for Kuczynski, 78, who once ran a mine in West Africa for Alcoa Corp, as he seeks to "modernize" the Andean country to cap an illustrious career in finance and public administration.

OBSTACLE TO INVESTMENTS

Five companies, including Chinese-owned steel waste recycler GreenNovo Environmental Technology, have signaled interest in buying the smelter in three days of auctions starting March 10, said Luis Castillo, a workers' representative in the group of creditors overseeing the sale.

Kuczynski said last year the smelter would be able to process copper concentrates from Chinese miner Chinalco's nearby Toromocho mine that contain arsenic levels that surpass Chinese import limits, forcing it to pay special fees. When the smelter's most recent owner, Doe Run Peru,controlled by New York billionaire Ira Rennert's Renco Group,operated La Oroya, sulfur dioxide emissions sometimes surpassed the daily limit of 365 micrograms by a factor of 10, according to a report by the environment ministry. "It used to import highly contaminating material to feed the smelter ... that ended up in the city and in residents," said Luis Egocheaga, the former manager of state clean-up agency Activos Mineros that is still working on removing pollution from soil in La Oroya. Doe Run Peru went bankrupt without finishing mandatory environmental upgrades, saying it had invested heavily to try to transform a creaking unit that had previously been under state control for decades.

A 2015 auction failed to draw any bidders as potential buyers fretted over liability for lingering pollution, labor contracts for some 2,200 workers and an estimated $700 million needed to clean up copper smelting, said Pablo Peschiera, the director of consulting firm Dirige, which is in charge of the bidding.

But Kuczynski, who declined requests to be interviewed, has said it would be cheaper to revive La Oroya if emission limits were looser, calling current standards an obstacle to investment in smelters.

While Peru's national sulfur dioxide limit is far stricter than Canada's, current law allows La Oroya to comply with a looser standard until 2029.

Kuczynski's government has said it is revising environmental rules.

"We want the metallurgical complex to be reactivated, but in an environmentally and socially responsible way," said La Oroya Mayor Carlos Arredondo.

Magellan Gold's Peruvian Niñobamba Exploration Venture Adds New Gold/Silver Concession with Promising Potential

Magellan Gold Corporation (OTCQB:  MAGE) ("Magellan" or "the Company") today announced that its Peruvian Niñobamba exploration venture with Rio Silver Inc. (TSX.V: RYO) ("Rio Silver") has applied for a new 553-hectare concession, bringing its consolidated land package to 36.53 square kilometers (9,027 acres). The new concession was the subject of an exploration program by Newmont Mining Corporation in 2009-2010, which yielded encouraging geochemical and geophysical anomalies and included an initial drilling program. One hole intersected 72 meters averaging 1.19 grams per tonne gold. Niñobamba is located in south-central Peru near infrastructure and with excellent access. Title to the new concession is expected to be granted by the Peruvian Ministry in the first half of 2017.

"This additional concession expands the extent of known silver-gold mineralization under our control to over six kilometers in an east-west direction", said Dr. Pierce Carson, CEO. "This extensively altered and mineralized trend contains a number of largely untested and open-ended silver and gold anomalies, several of which appear to represent excellent bulk mineable open pit targets. The newly acquired concession lies on the western portion of the trend. The main Ninobamba concession is located at the eastern end of the trend. We are particularly encouraged by results of historical drilling and surface trenching, which returned potential ore grade mineralization over substantial widths.  

"Currently we are compiling the extensive technical database, and are prioritizing targets for an aggressive exploration program planned for 2017."

In 2009-2010, Newmont Mining Corporation completed significant exploration within the area of the new concession and identified four prospective targets of which the Jorimina zone returned particularly encouraging results. Surface geochemical sampling identified a gold anomalous area of at least 700 meters by 1000 meters. Highlights of surface sampling include results from rock channel samples that returned 17.4 meters of 3.06 grams per tonne ("g/t") Au and 200 meters of 0.26 g/t Au. Geophysical induced polarization surveys showed four strong chargeability anomalies coinciding with gold-silver anomalies. Two of the four chargeability anomalies were defined as 680 meters by 150 meters and 700 meters by 200 meters.

Thirteen holes totaling 4,377 meters were drilled at Jorimina. Six of these holes drilled in the Jorimina Central area encountered significant Au-Ag-Zn-Pb mineralization in an area 700 meters by 300 meters. Drill hole JOR-001 returned 72.3 meters averaging 1.19 g/t Au starting at a depth of 53 meters. The Jorimina prospects exhibit promising potential for a significant discovery and additional exploration appears to be warranted.

On October 25, 2016, the Company announced it had concluded a Definitive Agreement with Rio Silver pursuant to which Magellan has the right to earn an undivided 50% interest in the Niñobamba Silver/Gold Project. To earn its 50% interest, Magellan must spend $2.0 million in exploration over three years.

In connection with the Rio Silver transaction, Magellan is required to complete two private placement unit financings in Rio Silver, each for aggregate proceeds of Cdn$75,000. The Company has completed the first unit private placement financing and expects to complete the second in January 2017.

About Magellan Gold Corporation

Magellan Gold Corporation (OTCQB: MAGE) is a US public enterprise focused on the exploration and development of precious metals. The Company's two mineral properties are located in Arizona and in Peru.

The 100% owned Silver District Property in southwest Arizona comprises over 2,000 acres covering the heart of the historic Silver District.  The property contains a near-surface historical drilled resource of 16 million ounces of silver and exhibits exploration promise for significant expansion. The Niñobamba Silver-Gold Property in southern Peru, on which the Company has the right to earn a 50% interest, covers 9,027 acres and demonstrates potential for one or more large, bulk tonnage, silver-gold deposits.

To learn more about Magellan Gold Corporation, visit http://www.magellangoldcorp.com.

Cautionary Statement

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can legally extract or produce. Under SEC Industry Guide 7 standards, a "final" or "bankable" feasibility study is required to report reserves. Currently we have not delineated "reserves" on any of our properties. We cannot be certain that any deposits at our properties will ever be confirmed or converted into SEC Industry Guide 7 compliant "reserves." Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of any "resource" estimates will ever be confirmed or converted into reserves or that they can be economically or legally extracted.

Forward Looking Statements

This release contains"forward-looking statements."  Such statements are based on good faith assumptions that Magellan Gold Corporation believes are reasonable but which are subject to a wide range of uncertainties and business risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed, projected or implied by such forward-looking statements.  Factors that could cause actual results to differ from those anticipated are discussed in Magellan Gold Corporation's periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Gold and Silver Stocks Regain Their Luster, but Will It Last?

Gold and Silver Stocks Regain Their Luster, but Will It Last? - The Motley Fool

Between Election Day and the end of the year, physical gold and silver, along with the miners that produce these precious metals, were absolutely clobbered. For instance, physical gold, which hit an overnight high of $1,340 per ounce once it appeared Donald Trump was on the path to securing a win, tumbled to the $1,120s per ounce in late December. In fact, gold wound up falling for seven straight weeks post-election, marking its worst downturn in 12 years.

However, the new year has brought new luster to physical gold and silver, as well as its underlying precious metals. Here's a snapshot of some of today's biggest moves:

• First Majestic Silver(NYSE:AG): up as much as 15%

• Coeur Mining(NYSE:CDE): up as much as 13%

• McEwen Mining(NYSE:MUX): up as much as 13%

• IAMGOLD(NYSE:IAG): up as much as 11%

• Northern Dynasty Minerals(NYSEMKT:NAK): up as much as 10%

• Alamos Gold(NYSE:AGI): up as much as 13%

Today alone, physical gold is higher by nearly $17 per ounce, to $1,180, which would mark a better than one-month high in the yellow metal. Silver's move is a bit more modest, with a $0.14 per ounce increase (just below 1%) to $16.55 per ounce.

Why gold and silver are surging higher

What's responsible for gold's and silver's surging per-ounce prices? For starters, a falling U.S. dollar helps. The dollar tends to move hand in hand with the U.S. economy, meaning a rising dollar denotes strengthening GDP growth prospects in the United States. Since gold tends to do well when there's economic uncertainty, a falling dollar inflates gold's prospects, and silver usually follows suit.

Image source: Getty Images.

We've also witnessed a sizable pullback in Treasury yields over the past couple of weeks. On Dec. 16, the U.S. 10-year note hit a yield of 2.60%. As of 2:30 p.m. EST, the 10-year note had a yield of just 2.37%, implying that bond buyers have returned. Remember, bond prices and yields head in different directions. As with the movement in the dollar, this dip in yields could just be a breather after yields moved more than 80 basis points higher in a matter of a few weeks.

The reason Treasury yields matter is because of opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is the act of giving up a near-guaranteed return in one asset, such as a U.S. Treasury bond, in favor of an asset with a higher return potential, like gold or silver. The thing is, neither gold nor silver pay a dividend. This means the yields of interest-bearing assets, like bonds, CDs, and savings accounts, need to remain unattractively low to spur gold and silver buying. As long as this trade-off remains low, gold and silver should do well.

It's also quite possible that weak holiday sales figures from retailers like Macy's and Kohl's could be sparking today's rally in gold. Both behemoths reported weaker-than-expected year-over-year sales slumps, with Macy's announcing the layoff of more than 10,000 workers in the coming months. Since the U.S. economy is more than 70% consumption-driven, weakness on the retail front could be great news for gold and silver.

Lastly, there's still uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's upcoming presidency. With no political or military background, there are clear concerns that his policies and trade negotiations could hurt, rather than help, the American economy.

Image source: Getty Images.

The rally could last for these mining companies

While precious-metal investors are undoubtedly enjoying today's rally, the big question remains: Will this rally last? I believe the answer to that can be found in the fundamentals of the aforementioned biggest movers today. Many of them have done an admirable job of cutting costs, and in some cases, boosting production. A few, though, are still best avoided, even with a nice rally to begin the year.

First Majestic Silver, Coeur Mining, Alamos Gold, and McEwen Mining belong to the first column of companies that could motor higher.

First Majestic's most recent quarterly report featured a 27% increase in silver equivalent production to 4.5 million ounces, all while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) fell 27% to $10.52 per payable silver ounce. Aside from favorable currency movements, First Majestic Silver benefited from renegotiated smelting and refining agreements and record silver production, on the aggregate, from its six producing mines. The star continues to be Santa Elena, which, with by-product costs included, produced silver at an AISC of just $1.82 per ounce in Q3 2016.

Silver miner Coeur Mining wasn't able to deliver the cost-cuts of First Majestic Silver because of a number of ongoing projects, but it certainly impressed in other areas. For example, Coeur managed to reduce its outstanding debt by 21%, or $109.3 million, during the third quarter, pushing its total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio down to 2 from 5.5 in the year-ago period. Even though its adjusted AISC rose 17% year over year in Q3, Coeur is expected to initiate production at Jualin in 2017 and ramp up Independencia throughout 2017, meaning higher production seems imminent (as does an eventual reduction in AISC).

Image source: Getty Images.

Alamos Gold, on the other hand, has only seen modest production growth, but it's really made a dent on the cost side of the equation. In the third quarter, Alamos reported an AISC of $979 per ounce, which was down from $1,155 per ounce in the prior-year period. Much of this was achieved through cuts in capital expenditures at its three producing mines. However, Alamos did announce in September that its developing La Yaqui mine has nearly twice as many resources as first believed, so there's reason for shareholders to be excited about the future.

Even McEwen Mining could continue to scamper higher despite its reliance on just two mines. Lower-than-expected costs at its El Gallo mine helped push the midpoint of the company's gold AISC down to just $780 in the third quarter from a previous midpoint of $857.50 per ounce. What's more, McEwen has no debt, and it's on track to potentially bring two new mines online over the next two-to-three years. Sometimes these small treasures can offer the greatest rewards.

Be wary of these precious-metal miners

On the other hand, precious-metal investors would be wise to keep their distance from Northern Dynasty Minerals, and perhaps IAMGOLD, as well.

IAMGOLD, as I discussed recently, isn't necessarily a bad company. Gold production rose by 7% in its most recent quarter, primarily a result of rapid growth at its Essakane mine in Burkina Faso. However, IAMGOLD's exposure to higher labor costs and political instability in West Africa make it a risky bet in the gold industry. The company is currently forecast to generate an AISC of $1,075 per ounce, which means it has one of the smallest margins relative to spot gold of its peers. It wouldn't take much to push IAMGOLD to a quarterly loss at this point, which is why I'd be a bit skeptical of this rally until gold prices are considerably higher and its AISC a bit lower.

Image source: Getty Images.

However, Northern Dynasty Minerals is a company I'd suggest avoiding at all costs. Northern Dynasty is a developmental-stage company, and the Pebble Project essentially represents the bulk of its valuation. The problem is this: Developing Pebble may not be economically feasible, regardless of its measured and indicated resources. Even if Northern Dynasty Minerals finds a path to develop Pebble, it has nowhere near the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars it would take to make Pebble a top-producing mine. There's no guarantee Northern Dynasty Minerals has what it takes to survive over the long run, which is why I'd call this latest rally fool's gold, with a lowercase "f."

I believe there are reasons to expect gold and silver to move higher, but you've got to be pickier with the companies you choose to include in your portfolio, or you could be disappointed.

2017 Predictions - Gold, Silver, PGMs, The Dollar, Markets And Geopolitics

Will the Trump Presidency last full term or could we see a President Pence?

Will US-Russian relations improve under the Trump presidency, thus easing global tensions/.

Will the US Fed be able to meet its rate setting program?

Prediction for the gold price - up 20% during 2017. Gold:Silver ratio to fall to 65.

Prediction for followed gold stocks - up around 100% in 2017.

This is the time of year that those of us who are brave - or more likely stupid - come up with some predictions for the year ahead. No doubt if they are horrendously wrong, which is the most likely outcome, they may be consigned to the dustbin of history, but if any are correct I will no doubt be dining out on them for the whole of 2018.

So let's look at what this observer considers will happen during the year ahead for the precious metals, precious metals stocks and the geopolitical drivers behind what I see as the likely price trends.

The prime trendsetter will be the ramifications flowing from the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the world's most powerful nation. Trump is, to say the least, prone to foot-in-mouthitis - or perhaps that should be twitteritis given his apparent propensity for tweeting his innermost thoughts in the early hours of the American morning. He may well take up the role of the world's most influential politician - although Trump and politician - certainly as far as the diplomatic niceties usually are concerned - could be considered something of a contradiction in terms. We actually doubt if a Trump Presidency will run full term. Perhaps impeachment, or resignation over past indiscretions, may lie ahead for The Donald, but the Presidency may well survive 2017, although with the American political divide ever deepening. How about a President Pence should Trump fall from grace - what would be his policies?

U.S.-Russian relations may well improve with the Trump/Tillerson (assuming the latter's assumption of the position of Secretary of State is not blocked) and some of the damage to relationships over the unproven hacking allegations may be undone. As an observer from outside the 52 States we do see a substantial degree of hypocrisy at play. It seems to be OK for the US to interfere openly in another country's election process (Ukraine etc.) but not for its own processes to be compromised by person or persons unknown, with the blame laid on Russia and President Putin himself. The latter has described the American accusations as fantasy, and sour grapes over Hillary Clinton's defeat in the Presidential election. Perhaps it is Putin's successes in possibly helping bring the Syrian civil conflict to some form of conclusion, albeit in alliance with the demonized President Assad, which is what really rankles, with the US-led regime-change efforts having come to naught over five years of passive and active support for the anti-government factions.

We suspect that Islamic State will be defeated on the ground in its Iraqi and Syrian strongholds, although, like the hydra, will rear other offshoots elsewhere. The defeat in its heartland will likely unleash terrorist atrocities in major population centers throughout the West - not even the USA will be immune despite any moves the Trump Administration may make in restricting Muslim immigration. This will just serve to build resentment within the existing Muslim community some of which may already be radicalized.

We suspect also, on the geopolitical front, that there will be some kind of military confrontation between the US and China - falling well short of outright war - over the latter's expansions over the disputed islands in the South China Sea. An increase in tensions in this volatile region could well be positive for gold (although the latter's price performance in the light of various 'black swan' events in 2016 does not look too promising for the year ahead). With gold, and all its interested parties, not the least of which would seem to be China and Russia - who knows?

So what of the markets? Any Trump bounce will likely be shortlived as far as general equities are concerned. We anticipate the Dow will almost certainly breach the magic 2000 level, but that this heady rise will be shortlived and it will come crashing down as the year progresses - maybe by not as much as some 'experts' are warning - but a substantial fall nonetheless. This will cause the Fed to once more delay its proposed interest rate rises and this will lead to 'déjà vu all over again' in terms of a rising gold price, but this time it may well not be halted on Independence Day and continue in the second half of the year too with the dollar falling in the light of Fed inaction on further interest rate rises and a fallout from the realization that the Trump Presidency is not the panacea for all the US's financial ills.

So where do we see gold and the dollar index by the year end? The former could well hit $1,400 or higher and the dollar index fall back to 95 from its current level of around 103. If these predictions are correct silver could again be the precious metal of choice. We suggest that the gold:silver ratio (GSR) under this scenario will fall to around 65 - it's 71.5 as I write - and the combination of a GSR of 65 and a $1,400 gold price could see silver soaring to $21.50. Not nearly enough to satisfy the true silver bugs - but give it time!

We don't think PGMs will do well as industrial output does not look like picking up sufficiently to have a significant positive price impact, but they would likely be dragged up by the higher gold price, assuming our overall scenario is correct. We could thus see Platinum at around $1,050 at some stage during the year and Palladium hitting $775. Nearly half the precious metals price increases though would be due to the falling dollar index.

So where do we see gold and silver stocks under this scenario? Most of them, failing technical and political difficulties, could well double in price from their current levels. We see no reason to adjust our most recent stock picks as providing the best upside options, sticking to our choices of the precious metals majors as being best able to ride out downturns without total collapse, if our metal price predictions are incorrect. These have all mostly done extremely well since we recommended them here a couple of weeks ago (See: Silver Leads The Way In Precious Metals Stock Performance), along with the recent precious metals price pickups.

We also added to our listing in an article published here on December 23rd and came up with Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) the world's two largest gold miners as the "go to" stocks for institutional investors, along with recovery gold stocks like Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) as well worth following assuming a rising gold price scenario. Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) could also do well if copper and oil prices hold up, or advance. We suspect all these could be outperformed by silver and gold miner Hecla (NYSE: HL). Royalty and streaming stocks Franco Nevada (NYSE: FNV), Royal Gold (NYSE: RGLD), Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) and Sandstorm Gold (NASDAQ: SAND) would also be likely positive buys if gold performs reasonably well in 2017. (See: GLD Drops 158 Tonnes Since Independence Day). We should also add in Randgold (NASDAQ: GOLD) as being perhaps the most solid performer in the sector.

So what target prices do we see for the stocks we would likely be following. The table below is adjusted for an approximate doubling in price during the year, but with our latest assessments of prices likely to be reached on the likely performance of individual stocks above or below the overall 100% increase.

Stock

Price 29/12

Target price

Barrick Gold

16.19

32.00

Newmont Mining

34.88

70.00

Goldcorp

13.75

30.00

Gold Fields

3.16

6.00

78.53

150.00

Freeport McMoran

13.45

25.00

Hecla

5.49

12.50

Franco Nevada

60.85

110.00

Silver Wheaton

20.03

40.00

Royal Gold

66.35

130.00

Sandstorm Gold

4.06

10.00

We have left out two of the best 2016 performers in the silver space - Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) which saw a rise of 266% during 2016 and Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS) which rose 126%. Undoubtedly both these will continue to do well in a strongly rising silver price scenario, but the former was very much a recovery stock in 2016 - and most of the upside is now taken into account - while the latter will likely continue to be held back by the Argentinean state of Chubut's continued opposition to mining which has kept the company's big Navidad silver project on hold with seemingly no likelihood of a change in circumstance in the near future.

So here we are with some predicted figures which leave us very much hostage to fortune. If the Trump boom and dollar strength is sustained through the year then all our predictions could well come down in flames. But we live in a particularly uncertain world at the moment and in a worst case scenario - for the world that is - there are all kinds of potential outcomes for forces already in play which could radically upset the global economic and geopolitical future - some of which we have alluded to above, while others remain unknown. After all who could have predicted the Brexit vote in the UK at the beginning of 2016 - and even more unlikely the Trump Presidential Vote victory. Undoubtedly more black swans lie ahead. We live in a topsy-turvy world.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.