Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta markets. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta markets. Mostrar todas las entradas

jueves, 24 de noviembre de 2016

Gold is getting slammed

aQPWMarkets Insider

Gold slumped on Wednesday after the durable goods report showed that US business spending continued to rebound last month.

Orders for things built to last such as appliances rose 4.8%, the Census Bureau said, while business capital goods orders increased by 0.4%, more than forecast.

Gold has been hit by expectations that the policies of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump will boost economic growth as well as strong U.S. data that has supported the case for an interest rate rise.

The precious metal was earlier weighed down by a strong dollar, though some analysts said that bullion could receive support from European political risks in the coming months.

Gold futures were down 2%, or $25.13 an ounce, to $1,188 at 11:38 a.m. ET. Spot gold fell below $1,200 for the first time since February.

Gold has shed about 10 percent from a peak hit in the aftermath of the U.S. election two weeks ago.

"It's been a pretty dreadful time forgold. Everything that's good for growth has been negative for gold," said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale in London.

With traders pricing in a 100 percent chance of a December rate increase, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, gold's decline may be bottoming out, Bhar added.

"I suspect that maybe 70 percent of the rate rise is priced into the market, and when it comes through, you may have 'sell the rumor and buy the fact'," he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve next meets Dec. 13-14.

Uncertainty surrounding Italy's constitutional referendum on Dec. 4 and French and German elections next year could support gold through safe-haven buying, Bhar said.

"Seasonally, as we move towards Christmas, New Year and Chinese New Year, that should see some physical support."

Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The dollar was steady on Wednesday near a recent 13-1/2 year peak.

While Trump's victory has spurred safe-haven buying of physical gold in Europe, traditional bullion holders in the United States are standing pat.

Another analyst believes that gold is vulnerable to more losses in the short term.

"We suspect that the precious metal will be under further pressure, likely taking out $1,200 support in fairly short order," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note.

Silver fell 0.7 percent to $16.52 an ounce and platinum shed 0.2 percent to $934.95.

Palladium gained 0.2 percent to $741.30, having touched its highest since early June at $749.40 in the previous session.

Why Are Investors Dumping Gold? Another Victim Of A Strong U.S. Dollar

Why Are Investors Dumping Gold? Another Victim Of A Strong U.S. Dollar

Gold rises as a safe haven when investors fear a recession, inflation increases or the U.S. dollar plummets, making the precious metal cheaper for foreign investors.

Well, none of these things are happening right now. Indeed, quite the opposite is happening. Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nine months. What's driving gold's decline?

Gold prices hit a nine-month low

Gold prices hit a nine-month low. Source: MetalMiner analysis of @stockcharts.com data.

The Case For A Bull Stock Market

To be honest, I've been pretty skeptical of the U.S. stock market. Market indexes have traded sideways for almost two years. Still, they have avoided a severe bear market. The day Donald Trump was elected, markets opened sharply lower as fear consumed traders. But stock markets love to do the unexpected and indexes are now back to trading in record territory.

S&P 500 surges following Trump victory

The S&P 500 surges following the Trump victory. Source: MetalMiner analysis of @stockcharts.com data.

Such action is a hint that equity trading desks and large funds aren't finished buying stocks yet. The question is: will Donald Trump's presidency for the next four years be just what the doctor prescribed to keep this aging bull stock market going, even after seven-plus years of gains behind its back? Could the rise in equities even accelerate?

That's too big of a guess. However, going back in history we noticed that in 1982, the stock market was on what it looked like the cusp of a major bull market. But soon after, the new president - Ronald Reagan - slashed taxes and unleashed a super bull market that lasted until the year 2000.

Not saying that history will precisely repeat itself, but the investing crowd is already making some strong bets even before Trump becomes president in January. So far, that hasn't helped gold as a safe haven.

The US Dollar Hits a 13-year High

Perhaps, the biggest factor driving gold prices south is a surging dollar.

Dollar Index rises to the highest levels in 13 years

The US dollar Index rises to its highest levels in 13 years. Source: MetalMiner analysis of @stockcharts.com data.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against a basket of currencies, continues to rise following President-Elect Donald Trump's victory.

Investors expect Trump's proposals to boost fiscal spending, cut taxes and loosen regulation. They also believe he will accelerate economic growth and boost inflation, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates. Expectations for an interest-rate hike in December's meeting have risen to more than 90%, up from 30% at the beginning of the month. Higher rates make the currency more attractive for yield-seeking investors.

A rising dollar depresses commodity prices, especially precious metals. It does have less of an effect on more economically-sensitive groups like energy and industrial metals. Indeed, industrial metals are on the rise despite a strong dollar. This is because the dollar is rising on expectations of higher rates down the road but, at the same time, metal prices are getting an additional boost because of Trump's plans to spend big on the nation's infrastructure. However, gold's demand won't be affected by infrastructure spending. As a result, investors are left without reasons to buy gold at this moment.